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Ngokusho kwe-balance sheet yamasonto onke ekhishwe namuhla, i-Fed ilahlekelwe ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-532 kusukela ekuphakameni kwayo ngo-Ephreli, okuletha impahla ephelele ku-$ 8.43 trillion, ephansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-September 2021. Uma kuqhathaniswa ne-balance sheet ngenyanga edlule (ikhishwe ngoJanuwari 5), isamba sezimpahla sehle ngezigidigidi ezingama-74 zamaRandi.
Selokhu yanda kakhulu ekuqaleni kukaJuni, i-Fed's Holdings ye-US Treasuries yehle ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-374 kuya ku-$5.34 trillion, izinga eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-September 2021. Kule nyanga edlule, ukubamba kwe-Fed kuMgcinimafa wase-US kwehle ngamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-60.4, ngaphezudlwana nje kosilingi olungamabhiliyoni angama-60.
Izikweletu zikaMgcinimafa namabhondi abhalwa eshidini lebhalansi phakathi nasekupheleni kwenyanga, lapho i-Fed ithola inani lawo lobuso. Umkhawulo wanyanga zonke wokubuyisela emuva ungu-$60 wezigidigidi.
Selokhu kwaba nenani eliphakeme, i-Fed isinciphise ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-115 e-MBS, okuhlanganisa nama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-17 ngenyanga edlule, okwenza ukuthi ibhalansi isiyonke yehlele ku-$2.62 trillion.
Isamba senani le-MBS elikhishiwe eshidini lebhalansi inyanga ngayinye kusukela kwasungulwa i-QT libe ngaphansi kakhulu kosilingi wamabhiliyoni angama-$35.
I-MBS iyanyamalala eshidini lebhalansi ngokuyinhloko njengomsebenzi wezinkokhelo eziyinhloko ezitholwa yibo bonke abanikazi uma bekhokha imali ebolekiwe, njengokubuyisela imali mboleko yezindlu noma ukuthengisa ikhaya elibolekiwe, kanye nezinkokhelo zezindlu ezibolekiwe.
Njengoba izinga lezindlu ezibolekwayo linyuke lisuka ku-3% laya ngaphezu kuka-6%, abantu basakhokha imali mboleko yezindlu, kodwa imali yezindlu ezibolekiwe yehlile, ukuthengiswa kwezindlu kwehlile, nokugeleza kwemali ekhokhwayo othishanhloko kunyamalele.
Ukudluliswa kwezinkokhelo eziyinhloko kunciphisa ibhalansi ye-MBS, njengoba kuboniswa i-zigzag ebheke phansi eshadini elingezansi.
Ijika elibheke phezulu eshadini laqala lapho i-Fed isathenga i-MBS, kodwa phakathi no-September lo mkhuba ongcolile wamiswa ngokuphelele futhi ijika elibheke phezulu eshadini lanyamalala.
Sisalinde noma yiziphi izimpawu ezivela ku-Fed ukuthi icubungula ngokujulile ukuthengisa i-MBS ngokuqondile ukuze ilethe umkhawulo we-rollover wanyanga zonke ku-$35 billion. Ngokwesilinganiso samanje, kuzofanele athengise phakathi kuka-$15 billion no-$20 billion ngenyanga ukuze afinyelele isiphetho. Ababusi abaningana be-Fed baye basho ukuthi i-Fed ingase ihambe ngaleyo ndlela.
Qaphela eshadini elingenhla ukuthi ngo-2019 nango-2020, i-MBS yaphuma kubhalansi ngenani elingaphezulu kwesilingi njengoba amanani emali ebolekiwe ehla, okuholele ekwenyukeni koxhaso lwezimali nokuthengiswa kwezindlu. I-QT-1 yaphela ngoJulayi 2019 kodwa i-MBS iqhubekile nokwehla kwaze kwaba nguFebhuwari 2020 lapho i-Fed iyishintsha yafaka i-US Treasuries futhi ibhalansi yayo yaqala ukukhuphuka futhi ngo-August 2019 njengoba kuboniswe eshadini elingenhla.
I-Fed isho kaningi ukuthi ayifuni ukuba ne-MBS eshidini layo lebhalansi, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yokuthi ukungena kwemali akubikezeleki futhi akufani kangangokuthi kwenza inkambiso yemali ibe nzima, futhi ngenxa yokuthi ukuba ne-MBS kuzohlanekezela izikweletu zemboni ezizimele (isikweletu sezindlu) ngaphezu kwalokho. ezinye izinhlobo zezikweletu zemboni ezimele. Kungakho maduzane singabona inkulumo ebucayi mayelana nokuthengiswa okuqondile kwe-MBS.
Amaphrimiyamu angakhokhiswanga ehle ngezigidigidi ezi-3 zamaRandi ngenyanga, ehla amabhiliyoni angama-45 ukusuka eqoqweni ngoNovemba 2021 laya ku- $ 311 billion.
Kuyini lokhu? Ezibambiso ezithengwe yi-Federal Reserve emakethe yesibili, lapho isivuno semakethe singaphansi kwezinga lekhuphoni lezibambiso, i-Federal Reserve, njengawo wonke umuntu, kufanele ikhokhe "i-premium" ngaphezu kwevelu yobuso. Kepha lapho amabhondi evuthwa, i-Fed, njengawo wonke umuntu, ikhokhelwa ngokwenani elibonakalayo. Ngamanye amazwi, uma kunezinkokhelo zekhuphoni eziphakeme kunezemakethe, kuzoba nokulahlekelwa kwekhephithali enani leprimiyamu lapho ibhondi ivuthwa.
Esikhundleni sokurekhoda ukulahlekelwa kwekhephithali lapho ibhondi ivuthwa, i-Fed inciphisa inkokhelo ngamanani amancane isonto ngalinye phakathi nokuphila kwebhondi. I-Fed igcina i-premium esele ku-akhawunti ehlukile.
Ukushintshaniswa kwemali yebhange eliphakathi. I-Fed kudala inemigqa yokushintshana namanye amabhange amakhulu lapho amabhange amakhulu angashintshanisa imali yawo ne-Fed ngamadola ngokushintshaniswa okuvuthwa esikhathini esimisiwe (izinsuku ezingu-7), ngemva kwalokho i-Fed ithola imali yayo. amadola, futhi elinye ibhange elikhulu likhipha imali yalo. Okwamanje kukhona amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-427 ekushintshanisweni okuvelele (nohlamvu M):
"Imalimboleko eyisisekelo" - Iwindi lesaphulelo. Ngemuva kokwenyuka kwezinga izolo, i-Fed ikhokhise amabhange u-4.75% ngonyaka ngokuboleka "efasiteleni lesaphulelo". Ngakho yimali ebizayo ebhange. Uma bekwazi ukuheha abonga, bangaboleka imali eshibhile. Ngakho isidingo sokuboleka efasiteleni lesaphulelo ngamanani aphezulu kangaka siyadida.
Isikweletu sokuqala siqale ukukhuphuka cishe unyaka owedlule, safinyelela ku- $ 10 billion ngasekupheleni kukaNovemba 2021, namanje sisaphansi. Maphakathi noJanuwari, iFederal Reserve Bank yaseNew York yashicilela ingosi yebhulogi enesihloko esithi “Ukukhula Kwakamuva Kwemali Ebolekisayo Yesaphulelo.” Akazange awasho amagama, kodwa uphakamise ukuthi amabhange amaningi amancane asondele ewindini lesaphulelo nokuthi ukuqina komthamo kungenzeka kwehlise isikhashana izikhundla zawo zokuthola imali.
Kodwa ukuboleka efasiteleni lesaphulelo kwehlile kusukela ngoNovemba futhi kumi ku-$4.7 billion namuhla. Vele uyilandele:
Izibambiso ezinkulu ze-Fed ngokuvamile ziwumshini wokwenza imali. Zisekhona, kodwa ngonyaka odlule iqale ukukhokha inzalo ephezulu - njengoba iqala ukukhuphula amanani - emalini amabhange ayeyifake ku-Fed (“izindawo ezibekiwe”) kanye nezimali eziningi zemakethe yemali kaMgcinimafa ngokusebenzisa izivumelwano zokuthenga kabusha ngokuphazima kweso ( RRP). Kusukela ngoSepthemba, i-Fed isiqalile ukukhokha inzalo eningi ezigciniwe kanye ne-RRP kunezibambiso zayo.
I-Fed ilahlekelwe ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-18.8 kusukela ngoSepthemba kuya kuDisemba 31, kodwa yazuza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-78 kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti, ngakho-ke isazuza u-$ 58.4 billion unyaka wonke. Ngenyanga edlule, uveze ukuthi wadlulisela imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-78 zamaRandi kuMgcinimafa waseMelika ngo-Agasti, okuyisidingo esivela kuFederal Reserve.
Lezi zimali eziphumayo ziqale ukulahlekelwa ngoSepthemba futhi zamiswa. I-Fed ilandelela lokhu kulahlekelwa masonto onke ku-akhawunti ebizwa ngokuthi Ukudluliselwa Kwemali Engenayo Kumgcinimafa wase-US.
Kodwa ungakhathazeki. I-Federal Reserve idala eyayo imali, ayiphelelwa yimali, ayilokothi ibhuqe, futhi okumele kwenziwe ngalokho kulahlekelwa yindaba yokubalwa kwezimali. Lokhu kungagwenywa ngokuphatha ukulahlekelwa njengempahla ehlehlisiwe futhi kufakwe ku-akhawunti yesikweletu “Ukudluliswa kwemali engenayo okumele ikhokhwe kuMgcinimafa wase-US”.
Ngenxa yokuthi ukulahlekelwa kwe-akhawunti yesikweletu bekuyisikwele, isamba se-akhawunti yemali yahlala ingashintshiwe cishe ku-$41 billion. Ngamanye amazwi, ukulahlekelwa akukhiphi inhloko-dolobha ye-Fed.
Uyathanda ukufunda i-WOLF STREET futhi ufuna ukuyisekela? Unganikela. ngiyabonga. Chofoza Ubhiya Nezinkomishi Zetiye Eziqhwa ukuze ufunde ukuthi kanjani:
Ngakho-ke, cishe ama- $ 3.5 trillion. Empeleni, angiqondile ukuzwakala ngibhuqa noma nginokubhuqa. Badlula engangikulindele ngonyaka odlule.
Ngobubanzi, ingabe ingqikithi yeshadi “lempahla” isho ngempela okuthile okufana namandla noma ukulawula umnotho wase-US noma imicimbi?
Ukudala ukwehla kwamandla emali (isilinganiso "semali" nempahla yangempela) ukuze "ululame" izinhlekelele zangaphambili (kanye nezilandelanayo) akuyona inkambiso yempumelelo, kodwa irekhodi le-pathological.
Okulindelekile kuphansi. Njengoba imakethe yamasheya ithola ukulahlekelwa kwayo okuningi futhi iba ibhamuza elikhulu futhi, ungacabanga ukuthi bangafuna ukusika amashidi abo ebhalansi ngokushesha, kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi inkinga lapha ukuthi abakwazi ukulahla ibhalansi yabo ngaphandle kokuthatha ukulahlekelwa. ukulahlekelwa kwetafula. Ngakho-ke, i-Fed kufanele iqale inqande ukwehla kwamandla emali futhi yehlise amanani enzalo, bese ivala ishidi lebhalansi ngesivinini esisheshayo.
Umbono wami uthi i-Fed izimisele ukukhuphula amanani ukuze igweme ukwehla kwamandla emali ngoba ilimaza umnotho wangempela, kodwa ayizimisele ukudayisa impahla ngoba izobaphuca uxhaso lwemakethe, okulimaza bonke abangani bayo abacebile emaphaketheni abo. Phela i-Fed iyinqwaba yababhange. Abanandaba namuntu ngaphandle kwabo.
Angivumelani nethiyori yakho, okungenani ngendlela ekholisayo, kodwa iveza iphazili ethokozisayo. Njengasekhasino, i-casino kufanele ivumele umdlali ukuthi athole inani elithile. Indlu inethuba lokuthatha lonke inani, kodwa umdlalo usuphelile. Kimina, i-Fed ayizicabangeli ngokungenalusizo njengeqembu labamabhange. Njengomuntu ongekho ekilabhini, ngizuze kakhulu kulolu hlelo lwezikweletu nemali, naphezu kwamashumi eminyaka nezimo.
Ukuqiniswa okulinganiselwe (QT) kwe-MBS kuhamba kancane kangangokuthi kuvumela ukukhuthazwa okungaqondile njengoba izimali eziphethe i-MBS zinganikeza izikweletu zamahhala noma ukuthenga ngokuqondile.
Lokhu akukhona "ukugqugquzela okungaqondile". Ivele idonse kancane. Kodwa isadonsa.
Wonke umuntu ubonakala efuna izaba zokulahlekelwa yimali emakethe yamabhere. Manje yisikhathi sokufunda kabusha Izikhumbuzo Ze-Stock Manipulator ngaphansi kwegama mbumbulu lika-Edwin Lefevre, empeleni onguJesse Livermore, umqageli. Akukho okushintshile. Imakethe yamasheya ifana ncamashi.
Manje ngibona inqwaba yezinhlamvu zegolide, ifosholo kanye neveni okubhalwe eceleni ukuthi “Harry Houndstooth Hauling Company”.
Imakethe ifushane ngokunganaki. Lena i-rebound ebesiyilindile futhi sekuyisikhathi sokunyathela igesi.
I-SQQQ yafinyelela umvuthwandaba, i-SRTY yafinyelela umvuthwandaba, futhi i-SPXU ne-SDOW ekugcineni yabona (njengoba u-Wile E. Coyote ewa eweni) ukuthi kunokuwa okukhulu ngaphambi kwethu.
Ukuhweba nge-algorithmic sekunzima kakhulu, kunamandla okulandelela izitobhi ezinde nezifushane. Basebenzisa ukuthengisa okulandelanayo nokuthenga okwenzeka ngesivinini sokukhanya ukuze banqume ukuthi bangathatha kuphi imakethe, okubangela ubuhlungu obukhulu kumtshali-zimali ojwayelekile. Isibonelo, misa ukulahlekelwa ezitokweni ezimfishane zezinkampani eziphelelwe yimali, ezisebenzisa isilinganiso esinyakazayo, i-Fibonacci, isilinganiso esinesisindo somthamo, njll. Abantu abangabanikazi bale misebenzi yokuhweba ye-algorithmic bayiqembu elikhethekile futhi kukhona ithuba lokubusa kanye nokuhlangana okuningi. imakethe yamasheya. Lesi ngesinye sezizathu zokuthi kungani imakethe yebhere izohlala isikhathi eside. I-Fed ilula. imali egciniwe ayinakho ukufinyelela ohlotsheni oluthile lwesofthiwe ethembekile ecabangela zonke izinto eziguquguqukayo zomnotho (njengangenhla) ukubala izinombolo zokufaka/izikhathi zesikhathi ezihlukahlukene ukuze kuzuzwe izinhloso zazo - yithi u-2% wokwehla kwamandla emali. Ama-algorithms angaphahlazeka ngemuva konyaka ezama ukuqonda ukuthi kwenziwa kanjani
Asikho isikhundla eside noma esifushane. Bamba indawo yegolide kodwa uthengise ngaphambi kwesikhathi kakhulu ngomhla ka-28 Disemba 2022. Ukube bengimfushane, ngabe ngithumele lokhu njengesixwayiso kubathengisi abafushane.
Ngilindele ukuthi i-US CPI ibe phezulu kancane ngoJanuwari kunoDisemba. E-Canada, i-CPI yayiphezulu kakhulu ngoJanuwari kunangoDisemba. Njengoba izinombolo ze-CPI zikhuphuka inyanga nenyanga, ngabe ngibe nezikhundla ezinkulu ezimfushane ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari noma ngabe ngibulewe.
Ngivuma ngokuphelele. thanda le ncwadi. Ngemva kokuthengisa zonke izinketho ze-Tesla ngoDisemba, ngaze ngathenga izinketho ezimbalwa ze-Tesla ngilindele umhlangano. Manje thenga futhi ukufakwa kukaSepthemba/Januwari - i-Nvidia, i-Apple, i-Msft, njll. Asethembe ukuthi isigaba esilandelayo sibukhali futhi side njengezinye izimakethe zamabhere.
“Ngathengisa ngakho konke enganginakho. Khona-ke amasheya enyuka futhi, ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu. Kwangisula. Ngangilungile futhi ngingalungile.
Ngendlela, u-Edwin Lefebvre ungumlobi wangempela nomlobi. Waxoxisana noJesse Livermore futhi wabhala le ncwadi esekelwe kuleyo ngxoxo. ULivermore naye unencwadi azibhalele yona, kodwa angisakhumbuli isihloko sayo manje. Ngokuqinisekile akayena umbhali oqeqeshiwe, futhi kuyabonisa.
Ngizwile inkulumo ethile, okuhlanganisa nekaLacey Hunt, ebonakala iphakamisa ukuthi lokhu kungenzeka.
Angiyifuni. Amabhange okwamanje azama ukuheha amadiphozithi amaningi futhi andise iminikelo yawo, ikakhulukazi ngokuthengisa izitifiketi zokuthengisa kumakhasimende amasha esikhundleni sokunikeza amanani aphezulu kumakhasimende akhona (asakhokha intela yokwethembeka). Amabhange abe nesikhathi esiningi sokuqoqa lolu hlobo loxhaso lwezitolo ezinkulu, futhi ayakwenza lokho. Uma ngibheka i-CD ye-brokerage yomkhiqizo, ngiyibona ku-akhawunti yami yokuhweba ngenani lenzalo lika-4.5% kuya ku-5%. Amabhange manje afuna amadiphozithi. Kunemali eningi ezikhwameni zemakethe yemali, futhi uma amabhange enikeza amanani aphezulu, azophoqa enye imali ukuthi isuke ezikhwameni zemakethe yemali iye kuma-CD nama-akhawunti okonga. Amabhange awafuni ukwenza lokhu ngoba kwandisa izindleko zokuxhasa ngemali futhi kufake ingcindezi emaphethelweni awo, kodwa ayakwenza.
"Sisalinde noma yiziphi izimpawu ezivela kwi-Fed ukuthi icubungula ngokujulile ukudayiswa okuqondile kwe-MBS ukuze kwenyuswe i-rollover ku-$ 35 billion ngenyanga. Ngokwezinga elikhona njengamanje, kuzofanele idayise phakathi kwezigidigidi eziyi-15 zamaRandi kanye namaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-20 ngenyanga. ababusi abaningi be-Fed bashilo ukuthi i-Fed ingase ihambe ngaleyo ndlela. "
Njengoba ngidelela i-Pow Pow, ngizoyinikeza udumo uma bengakwazi ukuyiqala. Siyethemba ukuthi lokhu kuzoba nomthelela ngempela ekwehleni kwentengo yezindlu futhi kusheshise ijubane lamanje lokwehla kwentengo. Umbuzo uthi kungani belinde isikhathi eside kangaka ukuthi baqale? I-Fed ibingeke yini iqale ukuthengisa i-MBS, mhlawumbe ngamanani amancane, ngesikhathi esifanayo i-QT iqala? Ngiyazi ukuthi bayayivumela ukuthi iqhubeke, kodwa uma bengathandi ngempela ukuba ne-MBS ezincwadini zabo, ungase ucabange ukuphromotha + ukuthengisa ngesikhathi esifanayo kungaba yisixazululo esingcono kakhulu.
Phoenix_Ikki, kunzima kimi ukwazi ukuthi ingakanani i-MBS i-Fed eyayinayo ngaphambi kuka-2006-2009. Ingabe i-Fed inazo izimpahla? Uma i-Fed ingakaze ibe ne-MBS esikhathini esidlule futhi imakethe yezindlu ezibolekiwe yakhula, kungani ukuthengiswa kwe-Fed kwe-MBS yayo manje sekunomthelela omubi emazingeni emali mboleko kanye nemakethe yezindlu?
Bakhetha isikweletu sezindlu kunesikweletu esingagunyaziwe. Baphinde bathenga amabhondi ezinkampani/ayimfucumfucu, nakuba ngamanani amancane, nawo awela ngaphandle komthamo wegunya. Futhi akukhona "ukumiswa kwezindinganiso zokubala ze-mkt ku-mkt accounting."
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-28-2023